Any running theories as to what this fall and winter will be like.

There are always those who predict the worst winter ever every year and of course that never materializes.

just saw this-- I posted a little on it in your other thread.

The long range I've seen thus far is large part of the interior away from the coasts as "equal chances". I have gut feeling that C.Canada down into the Dakotas could have a doozie of a winter, but that's really just based on triple La Nina and I haven't really looked at other factors yet. I will post them here down the road.

The following is rather extensive, but really good at the "whys" before the "what just happened" in long range weather forecasting- in this case, winter of 2022-23.

About as expected for La Nina. Below normal temps in the N tier and warmer in the S. The battle zone in between will be the major precip axis.

** Note -- when NOAA has "equal chances" for temp forecast for a winter with this amount of lead time, watch out, as they usually trend and turn out below to much below normal for much of the "equal chances" area. The author of the article stresses that as well.

If you don't want all the meteorological jargon and just want the outlooks, just skip about 2/3rds the way through the piece until the end.

First look at winter 2022-23 for Europe and North America

Saw your posts on the weather forum.

Do you think that the current drought conditions helped play a part in the record cold temps?

No doubt. Dewpoints where hovering around 0F the past few days and coupled with serious cold air advection from far N Canada allowed record cold temps.
If the ground wasn't as dry , dewpoints would have been slightly higher likely just enough to add a few degrees to recent overnight lows.

One outlook that I think has merit, though I think it's a little too snowy for many. Cold air may not be enough ( cold enough)- especially Far N across the Borderland/ Canoe Land. Big time battle zone will set up just S of this frigid air.

New data suggests maybe more moisture???